Researchers at Duke have developed a malaria forecasting system that uses artificial intelligence and climate data to predict outbreaks up to nine months in advance. Panama and Honduras will be the first countries to adopt the tool, which aims to strengthen national efforts to combat a resurgence of malaria in the region.
Created by biostatistician William Pan, of the Nicholas School of the Environment and the Duke Global Health Institute, and colleagues, the system analyzes over 3,000 variables—including temperature, precipitation and satellite imagery—to forecast where and when malaria is likely to spread. These insights will help health ministries deploy targeted interventions such as diagnostic tests and medications. Supported by NASA and the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the forecasting model builds on a decade of research in the Amazon and Peru. Experts say the tool’s ability to integrate climate data with local health trends could be key to preventing further spread northward. READ MORE.
Photo: Researchers meet as part of a study tracking mosquitoes in a heavily forested region of Panama, where malaria cases have risen 15-fold in the past four years. Photo by William Pan.